Weekly Cryptocurrency Market Outlook Sep. 27
Every week, BTCManager provides an analysis of the largest cryptocurrencies, highlighting our sentiment and the technical factors that will drive trends in cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, ether, and litecoin.
The chart below displays the weekly price action for BTC-USD. Last week saw the market close lower at $598.98, managing to stay above the support provided by the base line (red). The base line now provides support around $595.42.
Moreover, following last week’s close, a fractal resistance was formed at $628.99. The most recent fractal support level lies at $465.28. Given that the current market price is nearer to the resistance at $628.99 than the support at $465.28, we expect downward momentum to dominate over the course of this week. This is also confirmed by the Awesome Oscillator, as the histogram is lower this week and has turned red.
The conversion (blue) line is continuing to trend lower suggesting that there is a higher likelihood the market will move south this week. The conversion line suggests equilibrium for BTC-USD is currently at $547.64. Therefore, it is suggested we set sell limit orders just below $595.42 to take advantage of a bearish breakout, with a target around $550. On the other hand, we can set buy limit orders at $628.99 to take advantage of a bullish breakout.
A weekly close below $595.42 will point to a long-term decline in BTC-USD whereas if the market stays afloat above this level, we will look for further bullish confirmation. So while last week, the market tested the support provided by the base line at $593.25, another test of this support and possible break may occur this week.
Overall, on the weekly timeframe, there are more indications leaning towards a slightly bearish outlook for BTC-USD.
The chart below shows the weekly price action for ETH-USD, with ether hitting a high of $14.45 last week. While the base line (red) held as resistance, this week the market looks ready for another attempt at breaking the resistance level at $14.24. A weekly close above $14.24 will open up the resistances at $14.85 and $15.23.
Both volumes on the kraken exchange and the Awesome Oscillator suggest upward momentum will dominate. Firstly, the preceding three weeks have seen higher volumes suggesting further appreciation in ETH-USD over the coming weeks. Also, the Awesome Oscillator is trending higher and remains green for the second week in a row.
However, if this week’s price action fails to test last week’s high at $14.45, then the long-term outlook may lean towards the downside, as the conversion line is currently providing support at $10.72. Moreover, the conversion line is flat so the market will be attracted to the $10.72 level is the base line is rejected again.
We look for a weekly close above $14.24 for a long-term buy in ETH-USD, with a target of the all-time high at $21.48. However, a close below $14.24 this week should see ETH-USD range between the base line ($14.24) and the conversion line ($10.72), before deciding on direction.
Overall, on the weekly timeframe, there are more indications leaning towards a bullish outlook for ETH-USD.
Last week saw strong buying interest in Ripple, with the inverted hammer candlestick formed two weeks ago providing a strong buy signal. Last week, XRP-BTC closed at 0.00001323, much higher than the open. Last week’s candlestick is a variant of the bullish Marubozu which tells us buyers were in control the entire week. Therefore, we anticipate another round of buying interest this week, as more developments emerge with regards to Ripple.
For example, the recently announced partnership between Ripple and CGI (NYSE: GIB) is a milestone for the payments network as it is the first-ever commercial enterprise to implement the Ripple Validator node. “Given our ongoing efforts to further decentralize the Ripple network, we couldn’t be more excited for CGI to implement a validator,” said Asheesh Birla, VP of Product at Ripple, “Having a major enterprise player contribute to the consensus process on Ripple fortifies the resiliency of the network, and it plays a key role in our work with CGI to make it even easier to put blockchain technology into commercial production.”
The chart below shows the weekly price for XRP-BTC. Last week, the market closed above the most recent fractal resistance at 0.00001269, suggesting bullish momentum will prevail this week as stated in our previous cryptocurrency report. The next fractal resistance lies just below 0.000020 and will serve as the next target for the market. Several bullish indications are displayed below.
Firstly, the Awesome Oscillator continues to trend higher and looks to be eyeing a move above the zero threshold, which will provide stronger bullish confirmation.
Secondly, the conversion (blue) line looks to be moving above the base (red) line, which will indicate a shift from bearish to bullish momentum. Once the crossover is confirmed, we expect XRP-BTC to test the resistance region provided by the Ichimoku cloud.
Finally, after remaining red for the majority of Ripple’s existence, the Ichimoku cloud for XRP-BTC now looks to be switching to green, which will give an early signal that XRP-BTC will enter into a long-term uptrend.
Overall, on the weekly timeframe, there are more indications leaning towards a bullish outlook for XRP-BTC.
The weekly price action for litecoin is shown below. The close of the previous week saw a fractal resistance form at $4.04717. LTC-USD remains inside of the Ichimoku cloud region suggesting a breakout in either direction is possible. However, the conversion (blue) line has started to trend downward again this week and the Awesome Oscillator looks to be moving below the zero threshold, which will give stronger bearish confirmation.
The two most recent fractal support and resistance levels are shown on the chart with yellow rays. One strategy could be to wait for a breakout in LTC-USD, as the market looks to be unsure of the next direction for LTC-USD. For example, we suggest placing a limit buy order at $4.05 with a target of $5.00. On the other hand, we could place a limit sell order at $3.37 with a target of $2.87 (Nov 2015 low).
Overall, on the weekly timeframe, there are more indications leaning toward a slightly bearish outlook for LTC-USD.
Last week, a bullish inverted hammer candlestick formed suggesting the end of the downward trend that saw monero move from a high of $15.249 and closing at $10.24 last week. So far this week, XMR-USD has tried to test the important support area provided by the conversion and base line, that is around $8.00 to $8.26, posting a low at $8.50. However, since then the price has moved higher, now eyeing the $10.00 psychological level.
Given that XMR-USD has tried to test the support, indicated by the horizontal conversion line below, the outlook will remain bullish. The market is now looking to establish support, with the most recent fractal support found around $1.279. However, this week’s low at $8.50 could turn into a fractal support, given that the next two weeks have lows that are larger than $8.50.
Bullish momentum is still suggested to be in play, as the conversion line is trending higher than the base line and the Awesome Oscillator is continuing to trend higher, remaining green in color.
Overall, on the weekly timeframe, there are more indications leaning toward a slightly bullish outlook for XMR-USD.
The chart below illustrates the weekly price action for Ethereum Classic against the US Dollar. Last week, ETC-USD moved lower, closing just above $1.20. Resistance is seen at the 50 percent level of the bullish candle at $1.4149 whereas the next support is seen at the psychological $1.00 level.
Volumes were higher last week compared to the week before, suggesting higher interest in a downward move this week. Therefore, ETC-USD is likely to head toward the $1.00 and a break below this level will see downward momentum intensify.
Overall, on the weekly timeframe, there are more indications leaning towards a bearish outlook for ETC-USD.
Last week saw indecisiveness in the markets, as the previous week displays a Doji candlestick. Therefore, we should be on alert for a change in momentum as the market may be getting ready to make another move upward. For example, the chart below gives two bullish signals. Firstly, the Ichimoku cloud is green and fanning outwards, suggesting that a bullish trend will intensify. Secondly, the conversion (blue) line is trending higher, suggesting a higher likelihood of DASH-BTC appreciating.
Moreover, the previous weeks have seen the market test the support provided by the base level of the bullish Marubozu formed back in the week of August 8. This support lies at 0.01752297 and acts as an ideal entry to buy DASH-BTC. Since the market has bounced higher from this level after touching this support three and four weeks ago, we should see renewed bullish momentum in DASH-BTC.
As long as the weekly close this week is higher than the base line (0.0181), we should see bulls dominate the market, however, a weekly close below 0.0181 will invalidate the bullish outlook.
Overall, on the weekly timeframe, there are more indications leaning towards a slightly bullish outlook for DASH-BTC.